Hurricane Lee Likely to Bring Moderate Wind and Rain This Weekend

Hello everyone!

I promised I’d dust this humble blog off if there were ever a storm interesting or different enough that I felt like I could really add something useful to the conversation. With the first Hurricane Watches posted for parts of the Maine coast since 2008, this seems like as fine a time as any.

Hurricane Lee is the culprit, a sprawling swirl of storms out in the western Atlantic between Bermuda and Cuba. What the hurricane is lacking in vigorous thunderstorm action and peak windspeed, it is making up for in pure size. The Latest 5 AM EDT update from the National Hurricane Center shows hurricane force winds extending 100mi from the center with tropical storm force winds extending 290mi from the center. Hurricane Watches are posted for the Downeast coast east of Sonington with Tropical Storm Watches up for the rest of us.

I’ll start as per usual with a brief dive into the meteorology underlying the forecast before going through impacts from rain and wind to surge and swells.

Satellite imagery this morning shows Lee sitting near the base of an upper-level trough, labeled T1, currently bringing some really pleasant weather to New England (today is gonna be absolutely awesome!). Lee is about 12-24 hours too slow to interact with this trough most favorably. Instead of joining up with the warm airmass ahead of the trough and speeding northward, the storm will slowly plod through the cold airmass behind the trough tomorrow on its final approach to New England. The upshot? This is not the right setup for a true hurricane disaster in Maine or New England.

Our “great” hurricanes in New England, 1938, Donna, perhaps even Gloria or Bob, all sped north on the warm side of upper-level troughs, only spending a few hours over the cold Labrador Current that separates New England from the Gulf Stream. This fast forward motion and favorable dynamic interaction allowed these storms to make landfall without losing much of their strength due to cold waters. By the time they got here, they were only just beginning to “feel” the effects of colder water. This is just not the setup we’re looking at with Lee.

This forecast loop shows Lee (“L”) taking a full 24 hours, from 8 PM Friday to 8PM Saturday, to move from the warm Gulf Stream (yellow/orange ribbon east of Delaware) to the Maine Coast near Lubec. During that time, the storm’s powerful inner core will weaken significantly, though the storm’s larger outer wind field will remain intact.

Investigating the storm’s structure, we can see how Lee will be changing as it approaches our coast. Because the storm will be plowing straight into a cool low-level airmass as well as moving over cooler water, it will become detached from its tropical source of energy: warm water and the layer of warm air adjacent to it over the tropics. The right two panels show Lee’s v-shaped tower of heat being undercut by cool, stable air as it approaches the coast.

You can also see dry air impinging on the storm from the west in the bottom center panel, further helping to disrupt Lee’s core. In the top left panel, you can see an east-west cross section of Lee’s winds. Note how the east (right) side of the storm has much more wind (purple = hurricane force) at all altitudes while the right side is considerably less breezy. With the storm’s center likely tracking east of Cape Cod then up towards Lubec, that puts Nova Scotia in the crosshairs for the strongest winds rather than Maine.

What’s the point of saying all this? Some day, Maine will experience a true hurricane with impacts that will likely be dire and outside what anyone alive today has been through. This weekend will not be that day. The atmosphere just isn’t set up right to deliver a knockout blow.

So what is expected?

Today and tomorrow will be dry with a northwesterly breeze today shifting around to the north-northeast and picking up a bit tomorrow as some clouds spill north ahead of the storm. Saturday morning will dawn overcast with a stiff north breeze 20-25mph inland and 25-35mph at the coast.

Most of our area should be seeing steady moderate to heavy rain on Saturday morning depending on the storm’s exact track (the CT Valley/western NH may remain drier). The north wind on our side of the storm will help protect us from major storm surge action, though the National Hurricane Center shows a 10% chance of seeing a 1-3ft surge which could cause some minor issues with Saturday’s midday high tide.

With such a strong northerly (offshore) wind, I suspect most parts of the Maine coast will see a negative storm surge, where tides are lower than usual as the wind pushes water back into the ocean. This is especially true later in the day on Saturday after the north wind has gotten a chance to move more water south to compensate for all the extra water Lee will be bringing into the Gulf of Maine on its eastern flank and with its very low barometric pressure. Either way, this is not the right setup for a significant storm surge event in Maine. That will be more of a concern over in Nova Scotia especially along the southern coast.

While storm surge is not expected to be a significant issue, the one impact that will be truly unusual is the wave action.

Lee has had all week to build up a tremendous amount of wave energy and a good portion of that will be focused in the Gulf of Maine on Saturday. Although the absolute maximum waves will be over in Nova Scotia, this setup will easily support 12-18 foot seas in near-shore open water along the Maine coast. Breaking waves could add another 10 feet or more depending on localized bathymetric factors. Thus Saturday will be a day to stay out of and off the water unless you’re in a very protected harbor. Even if you’re standing on dry land near an exposed surf break, keep an extra eye on the ocean as rogue waves much higher than most can occur at any time and could potentially pose a risk if you’re caught off guard.

Rainfall will be in the 2-4″ range across much of Maine outside the Lakes region and mountains west of Rangely. After our seriously soggy summer, this will be enough to cause minor issues in poorly drained areas and perhaps some basements so make sure those sump pumps are in good working order especially along the midcoast. That said, I’m not expecting any widespread river flooding from Lee. Almost all of this rain falls during the day Saturday.

Peak winds will hit on Saturday afternoon in the 25-35 mph range inland and 35-50 mph range along the coast. This is quite common for our area during the winter, but it will “feel” more significant this time around because all the trees still have all their leaves. Thus I am expecting some power outages especially east of the turnpike. Winds will generally die down Saturday night.

Lee will slowly spin itself out over the Canadian Maritimes on Sunday leaving sunny skies and a gentle westerly breeze for any cleanup efforts that might be needed.

Overall, I’m thinking of Lee as a pretty moderate to higher end Nor’easter with the potential for some more power outages than you might expect given that trees are still in full leaf. It’s nothing our area can’t handle, but it’s worth spending some time today and/or tomorrow getting ready for outages along the coast. That said, outside of the maritime impacts (especially the waves), this is nothing we haven’t seen before and nothing we can’t handle even if it is unusual to have an official name and advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center.

Enjoy the storm, everyone. Until the next one,

Jack

Cool Air Remains in Place Today, ForecasterJack Comes to a Close

Hello everyone!

The latter part of this week will be somewhat significant for me personally as I (finally) turn 21 and graduate college. Thus it seems like as good a moment as any to hang up my hat as a daily Maine weather guy. I’m excited to play nomad for the next year or so while working remotely part time before I venture off into the “real world” for good, and such a lifestyle doesn’t necessarily fit well with opening my laptop every morning.

Jack around the time of first blog

Jack around the time of last blog

It’s hard to believe this modest blog started over a decade ago when my dad urged my ten-year-old self to ditch my previous blogging endeavor for something more professional. This little project has been by my side through quite a lot from the pre-Halloween snowstorm of 2011 when I was just starting the long slog of middle school to the blockbuster winter of 2014-15 when the “cool kids” realized snowday prediction made me (somewhat) useful to the nor’easters of March 2018 as I tried to figure out where I’d go to college to now, just a couple humid days before I’ll finally be able to officially call myself a meteorologist.

Many of you have been along for much of this ride too, and have offered words of encouragement that have meant the world to me. In 2018 when I headed off to college I thought about writing a post like the one I have now before my dad once again had a smart suggestion: maybe the good forecast-seeking people of western Maine and New Hampshire could bribe me with some pizza and textbook money to stay on the job. Well, it worked. I’m very grateful for all that folks have chipped in over the last four years to keep this little project running. I have turned off the Patreon as of this morning. Perhaps I should have done it a while ago- after all, there are many more deserving of your dollars than I.

I could go on reminiscing about the adventures I’ve had trying to forecast Northern New England’s fickle weather and all that I’ve learned in the process, but this rambling has gone on long enough. Thanks for a great run everybody! If you’re looking for reliable local weather info aside from our excellent local TV stations and the NWS, check out Mike Haggett’s Pine Tree Weather blog. He and his crew do a great job!

With that, here we go one last time.

Today will feature continued cool and mostly clear weather as Canadian high pressure settles overhead. Northeasterly winds this morning will shift to the east this afternoon leading to falling temperatures and some patchy stratus/fog near the coast. Another batch of clouds may approach from the north this afternoon ahead of a weak frontal boundary. Thus the north and coast will be coolest today with highs in the mid to upper 50s while the foothills in between remain sunnier and warmer with highs in the mid to upper 60s.

-Jack

Refreshing Canadian Air Arrives Today

Hello everyone!

Fantastic weather is on the docket today as Canadian air reclaims its rightful place in New England. Look for breezy north-northwesterly winds to push cooler and drier air into the region today. Satellite imagery this morning shows a bit less cloud cover than guidance expected. The morning looks more sunny than cloudy across most of the area with the exception of some cirrostratus near Mt Washington and a bit of stratocumulus northeast of Jackman. A modest surge of mid-level moisture this afternoon may support some more widespread mid/upper-level clouds for the latter half of the day. High temperatures today look delightful, ranging from around 60 in the mountains to the low 70s along the southern coast. The northerly breezes should do a pretty good job keeping sea breezes at bay, though winds may turn onshore in southern York County as well as along the southern Midcoast peninsulas.

-Jack

Hot, Humid, and Stormy Today

Hello everyone!

Today will feature hot, humid, and stormy weather as a tropical airmass continues to move in from the southwest. Just like yesterday, we’ll start the day with marine stratus and fog especially along the Maine coast. Stratus and fog will burn off from west to east during the next few hours, becoming confined to the immediate shoreline by noon. If you’re south and east of Route 1, you’ll enjoy a cool day in the marine layer with mostly cloudy skies and high temps in the mid 50s to low 60s. To the west though, it’ll be friggin hot bub. Low to mid 90s are in store for New Hampshire with only marginally cooler air across interior Maine (mid to high 80s). Dew points will surge towards 70 especially in Maine (the heat will be *a little* drier in NH).

The combination of high temps and sultry humidity will provide ample fuel for thunderstorms this afternoon. What we’ll largely be missing is forcing for storms to get going in the first place. That should arrive by mid afternoon as a weak pre-frontal trough interacts with the mountains. Look for showers and storms to go up along and north of the Route 2 corridor by 2-3 PM before moving slowly east-southeast. The atmosphere isn’t nearly as volatile as it was yesterday, but damaging winds and small hail are possible with today’s storms and a tornado can’t be ruled out in the more northern mountains (maybe the moose will report if there’s any damage).

The cold front ultimately responsible for this miserable hot air will approach the region from the west around sunset. A line of showers and thunderstorms from VT/NY will comprise its vanguard, though instability will be waning after sunset and severe weather is less likely with this round of activity. Still, for the coast and southern foothills that are likely to miss out on the early afternoon storms, the frontal line will provide the better shot for some needed rain and perhaps a rumble or two of thunder.

Cooler and drier air will pour into the region behind this front overnight.

-Jack

Heat and Humidity Encroach Today

Hello everyone!

A tragically hot and humid airmass will be encroaching on our area today as a warm front doggedly staggers northeast. Defending our right to exist in a sweat-free state should we choose will be easterly onshore breezes and a thick stratus deck. As I write this a little before 8 AM, defensive lines have been drawn along the spine of the Green and White mountains with thick low clouds firmly entrenched to the east. As the day goes on, the low cloud deck will come under fire from the strong May sunshine and developing southwesterly breezes. As a result, most of New Hampshire and a good part of northwestern Maine will be firmly under enemy control by the afternoon while southeasterly breezes keep the good times rolling along the coast. High temperatures will range from the low 90s in the CT and Merrimack valleys to the low 50s along the shoreline especially closer to Penobscot Bay. Clouds will hang tougher along the coast and east of Augusta while western areas see widespread sunshine after the morning fog burns off.

Some showers and thunderstorms are possible in the mountains this afternoon as activity from upstream in Quebec moves southeast. The most likely time for storms will be after 5 PM. We’re seeing a very unusual plume of thunderstorm rocket fuel (technical term) move across the area today thanks to rapidly cooling temperatures with height in the middle of the atmosphere. As a result, thunderstorms this evening could pack quite a punch. Be ready for frequent lightning, strong winds, and hail. A tornado can’t even be ruled out entirely. Storms are likely to remain mostly north of Route 2 with the odds getting rapidly slimmer farther southeast.

-Jack

A Tale of Two Fridays

Hello everyone!

Today’s forecast is all about location, location, and location. The region will be roughly split in two by a warm front advancing slowly from the southwest. In Maine, largely ahead of the front, southeast winds will push cool maritime air onshore. As a result, morning stratus and fog will be slow to lift inland and will remain locked in place along the coast. Temps will range from 50 near Rockland to 65 or so in the mountains where partial sun will emerge this afternoon. To the west in New Hampshire, largely behind the warm front, morning stratus and fog will burn off to partly cloudy skies this afternoon. Temps will rise into the low to mid 70s and dew points will creep up towards 60 as winds shift to the south and southwest. Heat and humidity will invade further tomorrow, the coast still looks to be in pretty good shape with onshore southerly winds.

-Jack

Cooler and Showery Today

Hello everyone!

Today will feature cooler temps and showery weather as a warm front approaches from the southwest. Look for morning sunshine in the north and east to give way to clouds over the next couple hours before rain arrives from southwest to northeast around lunchtime. Rain will continue through much of the afternoon before tapering off around sunset. High temps will generally range from the low 50s in the mountains and right along the shoreline to around 60 between Lewiston and Augusta.

-Jack

Cooler and Drier Today

Hello everyone!

Cooler and drier air will be moving in on northwesterly breezes today. Some leftover moisture in the low to mid levels has led to some cloud cover mostly over Maine, especially in the north and east. That should fade away in the coming hours as drier air moves in. The result will be a generally clear, cooler, and drier day with high temps ranging from the low 50s up in the mountains to around 70 along the southern coast where sea breezes will be suppressed by the prevailing northwesterly wind.

-Jack

Cooler and Generally Drier Today, Some PM Showers Possible

Hello everyone!

Cooler and drier air is slowly working its way into the region from the west this morning behind the cold front that brought showers and thunderstorms last night. Westerly winds will be the name of the game for most of today which means the coast will actually see its warmest day in a while with temps ranging from 60 up near Rockland to 65 in Portland. Temps will gradually slide into the low 50s up in the mountains.

A secondary cold front will approach the region from the northwest this afternoon. That means that clouds will increase especially up in the mountains, and some showers will begin popping up in the same area. Showers will struggle to move into the drier air over the coastal plain, but anyone is at some risk for raindrops this afternoon. If you’re up in the mountains, it may feel more like a rainy day with frequent shower activity. Showers will die down around sunset.

-Jack

Feeling Summery Today

Hello everyone!

Today will once again feel a lot like summer as warm and humid air moves into the region. Most of us will start off under some stratus and perhaps even some fog this morning but that will burn off by this afternoon for everyone not right along the coast. Onshore southeasterly flow will keep the coast socked in with stratus and fog while temps get stuck in the low to mid 50s. Farther inland, mostly sunny skies will push temps into the mid to upper 70s with fairly humid dew points in the 60s.

A cold front will approach from the west this evening. Some showers and thunderstorms will pop up ahead of the boundary in western NH this afternoon but the main line of storms won’t arrive until around sunset. It will be quickly weakening as it moves towards the stable maritime airmass, but some gusty winds are possible especially in NH.

-Jack